Mercedes-Benz Vision EQXX Concept First Drive: Sampling the Future

The automotive industry is in a tight squeeze right now, wedged within the transition from internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) amid a global pandemic, a war in Europe, and supply constraints and rising material costs. Several BEV automakers including Tesla, Hummer, Lucid, and Rivian have raised their prices in recent weeks, and other automakers have delayed orders, limited buyer options, and in some cases, shipped vehicles without supply-limited components, with a promise to fulfill missing parts when supplies are available. And here is why it's not likely to change very soon.That's the outlook through 2024, according to a report from industry analyst AlixPartners. In particular, the report says semiconductor shortages will continue to negatively impact new vehicle production through the next couple of years, caused in part by the rising market share of BEVs planned to go on sale as the majority of the industry shifts away from internal combustion.BEVs will increase chip demand at a growth rate of 55 percent per year, according to the study, which will remain a key bottleneck in new vehicle production. That means that, as automakers introduce a lineup of new BEVs, the technical requirements of these new vehicles will increase the strain of supply because BEVs typically require more chips than ICE vehicles.That will likely force automakers to continue to hold back on production levels, meaning the number of cars on sale will probably remain limited for a few more years. This gives automakers more pricing power if demand for new cars remains high, so cars likely won't get any cheaper anytime soon.That doesn't necessarily mean automakers are making too much profit from higher pricing. As an example, via CNBC, Ford recently said the Mustang Mach-E has lost most of its profitability due to rising commodity costs.Pricing will continue to be negatively impacted by rising material costs, for both new BEVs and ICE vehicles. AlixPartners puts the raw material costs for ICE vehicles at $3,662 per vehicle, and BEVs materials cost more than twice that at $8,255 per vehicle since the battery and motor requirements require more raw materials.Those costs per vehicle are more than double what they were just two years ago, according to CNBC, reflecting the impact of the market constraints mentioned above.AlixPartners predicts that BEVs will only overtake ICE vehicles in the majority of market share way out in 2035, as suppliers and automakers likely scale back or slow down the recently rapid introduction of the resource-heavy, higher priced BEV models planned to be introduced, and customer interest and EV infrastructure need time to grow.AlixPartners says $48 billion in infrastructure investment is needed by 2030, but so far only $11 billion has been committed, so infrastructure support for BEVs will be catching up for years to come.

This entire issue is devoted to exploring the increasingly electrified and automated "inEVitable" future of mobility, looking 15 years or so into the down the road. Because that's kind of what this page always sets out to do, I'll spend this month's word budget on a highlight reel of sorts, describing a future world in which the best concepts explained in previous Technologue columns have successfully reached production to keep the world's inhabitants and goods moving sustainably.Note that separate online stories (scan the QR code on this page with your phone for more) dedicated to each of these headings will delve deeper into the present status and prognosis of these technologies, without rehashing any of the nitty-gritty science.Carbon-Free Combustion Forever!Combustion still powers certain vehicles, but running bio- or e-fuels, they emit no new carbon. Most that run on alcohols burn biobutanol, which nearly matches gasoline's energy content and octane rating (problems with low vapor pressure were resolved post-Biden). Most vehicles run on chemically equivalent gasolines assembled from smaller molecules. Nacero Blue and Green gas is built from methane sourced from natural gas that would have been flared and from landfill gases, while the rest comes from scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere and combining it with cleanly electrolyzed hydrogen (see Prometheus fuels and Haru Oni/Porsche).How We Got to Cheap, Long-Range, Quick-Charging EVsEvery aspect of the EV was holistically reimagined, and vehicles with different missions look and drive differently. Integrating the battery into the structure with carbon electrodes and electrolyte resins makes sense in the smallest cars (and electric planes). Sports cars needing to rapidly store and release energy leverage both ultracapacitors and batteries. Lithium-sulfur chemistry has helped triple batteries' energy density, and solid-state batteries that can recharge in minutes are now a reality. The lowest-cost EVs use cheap reluctance motors, with torque smoothed by Dynamic Motor Drive tech. Retooling after Chipocalypse brought us better gallium-nitride chips that enabled faster charging, and building on manufacturing efficiencies pioneered by Lucid Motors helped further reduce cost. Finally, mining the Clarion-Clipperton Zone seabed for polymetallic nodules greatly eased supply-chain pressures for manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt.Infrastructure Improvements for Better DrivingAll new EVs now support wireless "opportunity charging" when stopped at intersections (a rarity now that vehicles and infrastructure are all connected and smart), or even when driving on remote stretches of highway. Some of that electricity is now provided by smaller, more localized pebble-bed nuclear reactors running on thorium or another fuel as easily stored or disposed. Major roadways have all been mapped with ground-penetrating radar for another weatherproof means of precisely geo-locating autonomous vehicles, and most roadways are now made of low-CO2 concrete featuring silica fume particles or magnesium. Bridge supports use carbon-negative algal carbon-fiber panels sandwiching similar concrete that incorporates self-healing sodium-silicate capsules to greatly extend the bridge's useful life.Life on Board a FuturemobileIn-car connectivity took a huge step forward when fragmented aperture technology democratized satellite internet, and with so many passengers looking at a phone or tablet, airbags more safely deploy from the ceiling, forcing devices into our laps instead of our faces. Anti-odor chitosan seat fabrics and odor-canceling "white smell" dispensers please our noses. A transparent "braille screen" allows blind passengers to "see" the passing scenery, while sighted passengers amuse themselves by watching claytronic "solid holograms" enact miniature 3-D plays. Onboard sensors monitor our health and forecast injury statistics to first responders in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a crash. Alas, Nissan's proposed "thinking cap" electroencephylography system of controlling the car via brain waves is still on the drawing board.The Vehicle ItselfAs crashes become rare, designers gain some regulatory freedom, and designs once deemed aerodynamically problematic become feasible with low-pressure air nozzles that employ the Coandă effect to keep air attached to curved surfaces, reducing drag. Impossibly thin roof pillars inflate in a crash to increase their strength. Tires now feature rubber made from kudzu enzymes, self-healing 3-D-printed seasonal-design treads, and either self-inflating devices (since Goodyear and Coda settled their patent dispute) or airless tech like Michelin's Tweel. Spherical tires have reached production, but only for very low-speed delivery applications, so don't hold your breath for Audi's RSQ I, Robot movie concept. At least not yet.

We'll keep this brief, given how extensively we've covered the new 2023 Honda Civic Type R's gestation over the past two years or so. From watching it lap Suzuka to watching it lap the Nürburgring to, well, just watching the same camouflaged prototypes again and again and again, we have a good idea about the basic contours of the 11th-generation-Civic-based Type R. At long last, we now know when we'll see the rest of the hot hatchback's details—and, you know, its uncovered body: July 20.Just days after announcing that date, Honda's Japanese factory museum and showcase website (Honda Ayoma) included an image of the new Type R uncovered among its listed vehicles on display. The image was posted to the Civic11forum before it was pulled from Honda's site, and depicts a Championship White (our guess) 2023 Civic Type R in all its naked glory. Given what we've seen already—mainly those swirly-camouflage-covered Type R prototypes—the new R's look isn't all that surprising save for its relative conservatism. Unlike the last-gen car, which sported a riot of vents, slats, and other racy addenda on top of the already riotously styled regular Civic hatchback, this new one takes after the much cleaner 11th-gen Civic hatch and Civic Si sedan, both of which wear clean, understated looks. Of course, the Type R suitably amps up the regular Civic with a bulging hood and front fenders, a bigger lower intake, and that big ol' wing on the liftgate.Honda's official announcement had helpfully provided our until-now only peek at the 2023 Civic Type R without any camouflage on it. That darkened photo (we tried lightening it more, to no avail) is below.While full information surely will drop on the 20th—just over one week away—we'll give you some of what to expect from this updated monster: It'll likely continue to be front-wheel drive, and powered by a version of the same turbo 2.0-liter I-4 as the outgoing model. Look for more than 300 hp, a six-speed manual transmission, Brembo brakes, huge tires, a wild wing, and even snappier dynamics than the already sharp-handling last-gen version. Now, with that, let's hope there are no more teasers (or leaks) from here on out.